Alliance and Sinn Fein smell blood as polling day looms

HAS it really been four years since voters across Antrim and Newtownabbey trudged to the polls?

Perhaps it’s that sense of ennui from successive lockdowns that turned every day into Groundhog Day, but it seems like yesterday that the class of 2019 celebrated their success - or drowned their sorrows.

Thus far, the election campaign has been fairly low key, apart from some sabre-rattling from the DUP and Alliance over a no show at events honouring the police and the UDR.

But a week is a long time in politics...

As the 68 candidates chasing the 40 seats brace themselves for the final push, there’s no doubt that there are quite a few nervous people out there.

For some, this is an opportunity to be gladly seized. For others, the prospect of the public verdict is something to dread.

And the reason for that is simple - good, old-fashioned demographics.

Voting patterns across South Antrim were once reassuringly familiar. Stick up the posters, open the polling stations, and then raise a glass to the unionists returned to power.

But things are changing.

It would be fair to say that some of the parties seeking local votes have entered the election race with a distinct spring in their steps - while others are facing polling day with a sense of trepidation.

Once an Ulster Unionist stronghold - in 1997 Clifford Forsythe received a mountainous 57% of the vote to retain his Westminster seat - recent years have seen a seismic shift.

Last time out, unionism still held sway in the chamber bagging 23 of the 40 seats up for grabs, with the DUP out in front with 14 and the UUP some way back on nine.

But something rather curious was happening. Alliance won seven seats and Sinn Fein five, overtaking the SDLP in the process who only managed to get four over the line. Alliance topped the poll in four of the seven DEAs.

At the 2022 Assembly election Sinn Fein topped the poll with 20 per cent of the vote. Runners-up were the Alliance Party.

And both parties are confident that they are poised to build on those historic gains on May 18, and are fielding their biggest ever teams to harvest those votes. No shortage of swagger.

Alliance are running 10 candidates this year, three more than their council breakthrough in 2019.

The campaign is being organised by former leader David Ford, a man who knows a thing or two about the election game, and he is bullish about their prospects.

“Responses on doorsteps right across Antrim and Newtownabbey suggest that the surge is continuing. I am confident that the hard work of our MLAs and councillors will see more councillors elected this year,” he said.

The mood is equally upbeat in the Sinn Fein camp. They are running 11 candidates - an unprecedented number for them in Antrim and Newtownabbey.

For the rest, particularly the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP, some hopefuls could be excused for being rather pensive about polling day.

Some old faces will not be returning. Veteran UUP men Roderick Swann and Fraser Agnew are retiring from public life, along with DUP rep Mandy Girvan. The Alliance and the DUP will also be seeking to get replacements elected for Glenn Finlay and Paul Hamill, sitting councillors who sadly died during the current term.

So where will be key battlegrounds likely be?

The Airport DEA should be an intriguing, if close contest with only seven runners chasing the five seats on offer.

Alliance candidate Vikki McCauley topped the poll there last time out, and her husband Andrew will be hoping to repeat that feat on May 18.

The UUP and DUP will be expecting to take one apiece, leaving the SDLP and Sinn Fein to battle for the remaining two.

SDLP man Thomas Burns has held the seat for decades, following in his father Bobby’s footsteps, but Sinn Fein are aiming to bump him out by fielding two.

Mr Burns has been here before, of course. Sinn Fein wrestled his Assembly seat from him, after all - but it will undoubtedly be an uncomfortable experience seeing their tanks roll onto his lawn.

In 2019 Sinn Fein harvested 22.7 per cent of the vote in the DEA compared to 16 per cent for their rivals - and their electoral fortunes have improved since then.

In Antrim Town, all eyes will be on the UUP. They are running two, even though there was little more than a single quota at the last council poll. Former Mayor Jim Montgomery was the last one over the line, just 83 votes ahead of Sinn Fein.

Again, their problems are compounded by the rapid growth of Alliance.

In 2019 Neil Kelly was one of the real surprise packages of the election, netting an impressive 1,689 votes - the highest total in the Borough on the day, and just a handful of votes less than the combined three-strong DUP team.

He was understandably delighted to be crowned ‘king of Antrim’, but the epic scale of his victory was tinged with regret.

It should have been enough to get two runners home. Trouble is, they only ran one - letting Councillor Montgomery off the hook.

This time, however, they are running two. If Alliance can come anywhere close to that towering total, someone will inevitably fall.

Sinn Fein are running Lucille O’Hagan. They came close last time, but with so many unionist votes sloshing around the system her success will have to come at the expense of SDLP Group Leader Roisin Lynch.

She took 11.2 per cent of the vote in 2019. She will need every one of them to hold on.

Over in Dunsilly, Sinn Fein will be keen to regain their second seat in the DEA. Henry Cushinan, poll topper last time out, will be hoping to help nudge Annie O’Loan over the winning line too.

Keen to get in on the action is Siobhan McErlean, the sole candidate in the Borough representing Aontu.

Linda Clarke is once again flying the flag for the DUP, running this time with Tom Cunningham. Also in the mix is TUV man Jonathan Campbell.

A new addition this time is Stewart Wilson, who is hoping to inherit Roderick Swann’s seat. He was inspired to enter politics by his grandfather’s central role in the Northern Ireland peace process. Former UUP General Secretary Jim Wilson also served as a South Antrim MLA.

The 26-year-old will be one of the freshest faces on the list this year, but he has quite a few years on the Alliance hopeful over in Ballyclare! Lewis Boyle will be taking a break from his studies to go on the hustings, ahead of his A Levels.

A rare Ulster Unionist stronghold - Danny Kinahan topped the poll last time before departing to take up a new role as Veterans’ Commissioner - Vera McWilliams and Norrie Ramsay are aiming to take two of the seats on offer.

It will be interesting to see if Independent Michael Stewart will be able to hold the seat he took in 2019 following a successful campaign over social media.

TUV man Mel Lucas, who got 4,371 votes in the 2022 Assembly election, may also be one to watch.

There are seven places up for grabs in Glengormley, and again Alliance and Sinn Fein sense an opportunity to make gains. Alliance took one last time - poll topper Julian McGrath - but they are running two on May 18. Sinn Fein went one better with two, but are fielding three.

Absent from the list this time is former DUP council group leader Philip Brett, who is now an MLA. They are represented by Alison Bennington and Paula Bradley.

Ten challengers are facing the public vote in Macedon, including Rosemary Bell-McCracken, the only PUP challenger standing in the Borough.

This is firmly DUP turf - they took 42 per cent of the vote last time - but unusually they are running three completely different candidates.

Alliance group leader Billy Webb, a poll topper last time, will be confident when the count gets underway at the Valley Leisure Centre.

Former MLA Norman Boyd has thrown his hat into the ring too. Like Mel Lucas, he joined the TUV after starting his political career with the DUP.

That leaves Three Mile Water, another DUP stronghold. They took three seats there in 2019 and their team of poll topper Mark Cooper, Sam Flanagan and current Mayor Stephen Ross will be confident that what they have, they hold.

Missing for the first time in many years will be Fraser Agnew. Standing instead for the Ulster Unionists is Stephen Cosgrove, brother of UUP group leader Mark Cosgrove.

It’s all to play for - but do not be surprised to see the political landscape redrawn on May 18.

And once again, it may not be the unionist parties keeping the champagne on ice...